By David Western, Victor Mose and David Maitumo

We began regularly counting wildlife in the Amboseli Basin in 2009 in anticipation of the severe drought in the course of the year. The counts of 700 square kilometer Amboseli Basin were designed to catalogue the drought and subsequent recovery in far greater detail than we could glean from the large-scale aerial counts of the 8,500 square kilometer ecosystem censuses once a year. The ground counts of live and dead animals proved timely.
The wildlife and livestock losses to drought in 2009 became so alarming that we convened an emergency meeting in of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, Kenya Wildlife Service and conservation organizations in December 2009. At the meeting we presented the extreme drought losses: over 95 of the wildebeest and two thirds of the zebra and cattle died, died in the preceding few months. The two hundred remaining wildebeest of the 6,000 at the start of the year were in imminent risk of extinction. We also forecast heavy predation on cattle around Amboseli National Park once wildlife left on migrations. Unfortunately, our warnings went unheeded and many lions were killed by herders suffering heavy cattle losses.
​
The unexpected good news is that wildlife bounced back far faster than the slow recovery we projected due to heavy predation on the small surviving herds, by 2020 wildlife numbers had recovered, and even exceeded those at the start of 2009. The graph below shows the strong recovery of wildebeest and zebra between the 2009 and 2014. Buffalo, which seldom migrated in the rains, suffered far heavier predation than zebra and wildebeest and were slower to bounce back but had also recovered their pre-drought levels by 2017.

Ground counts of the Amboseli Basin and National Park showing the extreme crashes of wildebeest, zebra and buffalo populations in the 2009, and a faster than expected recovery in the following years due to immigration from Tsavo and Tanzania. The regular fluctuations reflect the seasonal migrations from the Amboseli basin to wet season foraging grounds. Note that buffalo seldom migrated in the rains and recovered more slowly than zebra and wildebeest due to heavier predation during the rains.

The faster than expected recovery from the extreme drought of 2009 resulted from a fortuitous influx of wildebeest and zebra from Tsavo National Park and Ngaserai in Tanzania. Had the links to these wildlife areas been cut off, Amboseli’s wildlife would have taken years longer to recover, and wildebeest would likely have gone extinct. The recovery shows just how important is the connection between wildlife areas and parks become more isolated and vulnerable to drought and other hazards. The connections to adjacent wildlife areas have been incorporated into the Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan and Amboseli National Park Plan 2020-2030.
​
For a fuller description of the drought see David Western. The Worst Drought. Turning Point or Tipping Point. Swara 2010: 3 16-20, for an account of the drought.

 

By David (Jonah) Western

October 16, 2026

Six decades on from studying the ecology of Amboseli, I wrote in We Alone. How Humans Have Conquered the Planet.

By David (Jonah) Western

October 6, 2026

Last week saw the worst fires in years envelop Kilimanjaro.

By David (Jonah) Western

September 25, 2026

The extensive flooding in March of 2026 caused the closure of the Amboseli airstrip.

A strong recovery of Amboseli’s wildebeest, zebra and buffalo following the extreme drought of 2009

Authored by : David Western, Victor Mose and David Maitumo
Posted on December 23, 2020

We began regularly counting wildlife in the Amboseli Basin in 2009 in anticipation of the severe drought in the course of the year. The counts of 700 square kilometer Amboseli Basin were designed to catalogue the drought and subsequent recovery in far greater detail than we could glean from the large-scale aerial counts of the 8,500 square kilometer ecosystem censuses once a year. The ground counts of live and dead animals proved timely.
The wildlife and livestock losses to drought in 2009 became so alarming that we convened an emergency meeting in of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, Kenya Wildlife Service and conservation organizations in December 2009. At the meeting we presented the extreme drought losses: over 95 of the wildebeest and two thirds of the zebra and cattle died, died in the preceding few months. The two hundred remaining wildebeest of the 6,000 at the start of the year were in imminent risk of extinction. We also forecast heavy predation on cattle around Amboseli National Park once wildlife left on migrations. Unfortunately, our warnings went unheeded and many lions were killed by herders suffering heavy cattle losses.
​
The unexpected good news is that wildlife bounced back far faster than the slow recovery we projected due to heavy predation on the small surviving herds, by 2020 wildlife numbers had recovered, and even exceeded those at the start of 2009. The graph below shows the strong recovery of wildebeest and zebra between the 2009 and 2014. Buffalo, which seldom migrated in the rains, suffered far heavier predation than zebra and wildebeest and were slower to bounce back but had also recovered their pre-drought levels by 2017.

Ground counts of the Amboseli Basin and National Park showing the extreme crashes of wildebeest, zebra and buffalo populations in the 2009, and a faster than expected recovery in the following years due to immigration from Tsavo and Tanzania. The regular fluctuations reflect the seasonal migrations from the Amboseli basin to wet season foraging grounds. Note that buffalo seldom migrated in the rains and recovered more slowly than zebra and wildebeest due to heavier predation during the rains.

The faster than expected recovery from the extreme drought of 2009 resulted from a fortuitous influx of wildebeest and zebra from Tsavo National Park and Ngaserai in Tanzania. Had the links to these wildlife areas been cut off, Amboseli’s wildlife would have taken years longer to recover, and wildebeest would likely have gone extinct. The recovery shows just how important is the connection between wildlife areas and parks become more isolated and vulnerable to drought and other hazards. The connections to adjacent wildlife areas have been incorporated into the Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan and Amboseli National Park Plan 2020-2030.
​
For a fuller description of the drought see David Western. The Worst Drought. Turning Point or Tipping Point. Swara 2010: 3 16-20, for an account of the drought.

 

By David Western, Victor Mose and David Maitumo

We began regularly counting wildlife in the Amboseli Basin in 2009 in anticipation of the severe drought in the course of the year. The counts of 700 square kilometer Amboseli Basin were designed to catalogue the drought and subsequent recovery in far greater detail than we could glean from the large-scale aerial counts of the 8,500 square kilometer ecosystem censuses once a year. The ground counts of live and dead animals proved timely.
The wildlife and livestock losses to drought in 2009 became so alarming that we convened an emergency meeting in of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, Kenya Wildlife Service and conservation organizations in December 2009. At the meeting we presented the extreme drought losses: over 95 of the wildebeest and two thirds of the zebra and cattle died, died in the preceding few months. The two hundred remaining wildebeest of the 6,000 at the start of the year were in imminent risk of extinction. We also forecast heavy predation on cattle around Amboseli National Park once wildlife left on migrations. Unfortunately, our warnings went unheeded and many lions were killed by herders suffering heavy cattle losses.
​
The unexpected good news is that wildlife bounced back far faster than the slow recovery we projected due to heavy predation on the small surviving herds, by 2020 wildlife numbers had recovered, and even exceeded those at the start of 2009. The graph below shows the strong recovery of wildebeest and zebra between the 2009 and 2014. Buffalo, which seldom migrated in the rains, suffered far heavier predation than zebra and wildebeest and were slower to bounce back but had also recovered their pre-drought levels by 2017.

Ground counts of the Amboseli Basin and National Park showing the extreme crashes of wildebeest, zebra and buffalo populations in the 2009, and a faster than expected recovery in the following years due to immigration from Tsavo and Tanzania. The regular fluctuations reflect the seasonal migrations from the Amboseli basin to wet season foraging grounds. Note that buffalo seldom migrated in the rains and recovered more slowly than zebra and wildebeest due to heavier predation during the rains.

The faster than expected recovery from the extreme drought of 2009 resulted from a fortuitous influx of wildebeest and zebra from Tsavo National Park and Ngaserai in Tanzania. Had the links to these wildlife areas been cut off, Amboseli’s wildlife would have taken years longer to recover, and wildebeest would likely have gone extinct. The recovery shows just how important is the connection between wildlife areas and parks become more isolated and vulnerable to drought and other hazards. The connections to adjacent wildlife areas have been incorporated into the Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan and Amboseli National Park Plan 2020-2030.
​
For a fuller description of the drought see David Western. The Worst Drought. Turning Point or Tipping Point. Swara 2010: 3 16-20, for an account of the drought.

 

By David (Jonah) Western

October 16, 2026

Six decades on from studying the ecology of Amboseli, I wrote in We Alone. How Humans Have Conquered the Planet.

By David (Jonah) Western

October 6, 2026

Last week saw the worst fires in years envelop Kilimanjaro.

By David (Jonah) Western

September 25, 2026

The extensive flooding in March of 2026 caused the closure of the Amboseli airstrip.

Posted on December 23, 2020

By David Western, Victor Mose and David Maitumo

We began regularly counting wildlife in the Amboseli Basin in 2009 in anticipation of the severe drought in the course of the year. The counts of 700 square kilometer Amboseli Basin were designed to catalogue the drought and subsequent recovery in far greater detail than we could glean from the large-scale aerial counts of the 8,500 square kilometer ecosystem censuses once a year. The ground counts of live and dead animals proved timely.
The wildlife and livestock losses to drought in 2009 became so alarming that we convened an emergency meeting in of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, Kenya Wildlife Service and conservation organizations in December 2009. At the meeting we presented the extreme drought losses: over 95 of the wildebeest and two thirds of the zebra and cattle died, died in the preceding few months. The two hundred remaining wildebeest of the 6,000 at the start of the year were in imminent risk of extinction. We also forecast heavy predation on cattle around Amboseli National Park once wildlife left on migrations. Unfortunately, our warnings went unheeded and many lions were killed by herders suffering heavy cattle losses.
​
The unexpected good news is that wildlife bounced back far faster than the slow recovery we projected due to heavy predation on the small surviving herds, by 2020 wildlife numbers had recovered, and even exceeded those at the start of 2009. The graph below shows the strong recovery of wildebeest and zebra between the 2009 and 2014. Buffalo, which seldom migrated in the rains, suffered far heavier predation than zebra and wildebeest and were slower to bounce back but had also recovered their pre-drought levels by 2017.

Ground counts of the Amboseli Basin and National Park showing the extreme crashes of wildebeest, zebra and buffalo populations in the 2009, and a faster than expected recovery in the following years due to immigration from Tsavo and Tanzania. The regular fluctuations reflect the seasonal migrations from the Amboseli basin to wet season foraging grounds. Note that buffalo seldom migrated in the rains and recovered more slowly than zebra and wildebeest due to heavier predation during the rains.

The faster than expected recovery from the extreme drought of 2009 resulted from a fortuitous influx of wildebeest and zebra from Tsavo National Park and Ngaserai in Tanzania. Had the links to these wildlife areas been cut off, Amboseli’s wildlife would have taken years longer to recover, and wildebeest would likely have gone extinct. The recovery shows just how important is the connection between wildlife areas and parks become more isolated and vulnerable to drought and other hazards. The connections to adjacent wildlife areas have been incorporated into the Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan and Amboseli National Park Plan 2020-2030.
​
For a fuller description of the drought see David Western. The Worst Drought. Turning Point or Tipping Point. Swara 2010: 3 16-20, for an account of the drought.

 

Recent Posts

By David (Jonah) Western

October 28, 2026

Ecotourism Kenya celebrated its 30th anniversary at festive gala held at the Hyatt Regency on 16th of October.

By David (Jonah) Western

October 16, 2026

Six decades on from studying the ecology of Amboseli, I wrote in We Alone. How Humans Have Conquered the Planet.

By David (Jonah) Western

October 6, 2026

Last week saw the worst fires in years envelop Kilimanjaro.

By David (Jonah) Western

September 25, 2026

The extensive flooding in March of 2026 caused the closure of the Amboseli airstrip.

By Victor N. Mose

September 23, 2026

Herders from Amboseli, who are members of a community visited JKUAT.

By Jonah Western

August 17, 2026

The deaths of two more elephants in the Amboseli area last week bring the total to 19, further fueling speculation

By Victor N. Mose

August 10, 2026

Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) statisticians this week took Bayesian inference back 1 million years.

By Dr. David Jonah Western

August 5, 2026

Sixteen elephants have died in Amboseli in just a few weeks, alarming conservationists and the Maasai community

By David Western, Victor N. Mose*, David Maitumo, Winfridah Kemunto, Sakimba Kimiti, Immaculate Ombongi, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

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The latest Amboseli Ecosystem Outlook Report combines perspectives from local herders and livestock traders

By Victor N. Mose

July 22, 2026

Fireworks displaying EU–Kenya relations rocked the skyline in Loresho at Shamba Café, lighting up the evening sky

Contact Us

Amboseli Conservation Program
P.O Box 15289-00509 or 62844-00200
Nairobi, Kenya.

Tel/Fax: +254 20 891360 / 891751
Email: acc@acc.or.ke