By David Western, Victor Mose and David Maitumo

We began regularly counting wildlife in the Amboseli Basin in 2009 in anticipation of the severe drought in the course of the year. The counts of 700 square kilometer Amboseli Basin were designed to catalogue the drought and subsequent recovery in far greater detail than we could glean from the large-scale aerial counts of the 8,500 square kilometer ecosystem censuses once a year. The ground counts of live and dead animals proved timely.
The wildlife and livestock losses to drought in 2009 became so alarming that we convened an emergency meeting in of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, Kenya Wildlife Service and conservation organizations in December 2009. At the meeting we presented the extreme drought losses: over 95 of the wildebeest and two thirds of the zebra and cattle died, died in the preceding few months. The two hundred remaining wildebeest of the 6,000 at the start of the year were in imminent risk of extinction. We also forecast heavy predation on cattle around Amboseli National Park once wildlife left on migrations. Unfortunately, our warnings went unheeded and many lions were killed by herders suffering heavy cattle losses.

The unexpected good news is that wildlife bounced back far faster than the slow recovery we projected due to heavy predation on the small surviving herds, by 2020 wildlife numbers had recovered, and even exceeded those at the start of 2009. The graph below shows the strong recovery of wildebeest and zebra between the 2009 and 2014. Buffalo, which seldom migrated in the rains, suffered far heavier predation than zebra and wildebeest and were slower to bounce back but had also recovered their pre-drought levels by 2017.

Ground counts of the Amboseli Basin and National Park showing the extreme crashes of wildebeest, zebra and buffalo populations in the 2009, and a faster than expected recovery in the following years due to immigration from Tsavo and Tanzania. The regular fluctuations reflect the seasonal migrations from the Amboseli basin to wet season foraging grounds. Note that buffalo seldom migrated in the rains and recovered more slowly than zebra and wildebeest due to heavier predation during the rains.

The faster than expected recovery from the extreme drought of 2009 resulted from a fortuitous influx of wildebeest and zebra from Tsavo National Park and Ngaserai in Tanzania. Had the links to these wildlife areas been cut off, Amboseli’s wildlife would have taken years longer to recover, and wildebeest would likely have gone extinct. The recovery shows just how important is the connection between wildlife areas and parks become more isolated and vulnerable to drought and other hazards. The connections to adjacent wildlife areas have been incorporated into the Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan and Amboseli National Park Plan 2020-2030.

For a fuller description of the drought see David Western. The Worst Drought. Turning Point or Tipping PointSwara 2010: 3 16-20, for an account of the drought.

By Victor N. Mose

ACP, ACC, and NAU launched a NASA-funded One Health survey using GEDI and local monitoring for ecosystem health.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem

By David Western, Immaculate Ombongi and Victor N. Mose

Our study traces the transition from traditional livestock practices based on seasonal migrations to permanent

A strong recovery of Amboseli’s wildebeest, zebra and buffalo following the extreme drought of 2009

Authored by : David Western, Victor Mose and David Maitumo
Posted on December 23, 2020

We began regularly counting wildlife in the Amboseli Basin in 2009 in anticipation of the severe drought in the course of the year. The counts of 700 square kilometer Amboseli Basin were designed to catalogue the drought and subsequent recovery in far greater detail than we could glean from the large-scale aerial counts of the 8,500 square kilometer ecosystem censuses once a year. The ground counts of live and dead animals proved timely.
The wildlife and livestock losses to drought in 2009 became so alarming that we convened an emergency meeting in of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, Kenya Wildlife Service and conservation organizations in December 2009. At the meeting we presented the extreme drought losses: over 95 of the wildebeest and two thirds of the zebra and cattle died, died in the preceding few months. The two hundred remaining wildebeest of the 6,000 at the start of the year were in imminent risk of extinction. We also forecast heavy predation on cattle around Amboseli National Park once wildlife left on migrations. Unfortunately, our warnings went unheeded and many lions were killed by herders suffering heavy cattle losses.

The unexpected good news is that wildlife bounced back far faster than the slow recovery we projected due to heavy predation on the small surviving herds, by 2020 wildlife numbers had recovered, and even exceeded those at the start of 2009. The graph below shows the strong recovery of wildebeest and zebra between the 2009 and 2014. Buffalo, which seldom migrated in the rains, suffered far heavier predation than zebra and wildebeest and were slower to bounce back but had also recovered their pre-drought levels by 2017.

Ground counts of the Amboseli Basin and National Park showing the extreme crashes of wildebeest, zebra and buffalo populations in the 2009, and a faster than expected recovery in the following years due to immigration from Tsavo and Tanzania. The regular fluctuations reflect the seasonal migrations from the Amboseli basin to wet season foraging grounds. Note that buffalo seldom migrated in the rains and recovered more slowly than zebra and wildebeest due to heavier predation during the rains.

The faster than expected recovery from the extreme drought of 2009 resulted from a fortuitous influx of wildebeest and zebra from Tsavo National Park and Ngaserai in Tanzania. Had the links to these wildlife areas been cut off, Amboseli’s wildlife would have taken years longer to recover, and wildebeest would likely have gone extinct. The recovery shows just how important is the connection between wildlife areas and parks become more isolated and vulnerable to drought and other hazards. The connections to adjacent wildlife areas have been incorporated into the Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan and Amboseli National Park Plan 2020-2030.

For a fuller description of the drought see David Western. The Worst Drought. Turning Point or Tipping PointSwara 2010: 3 16-20, for an account of the drought.

By David Western, Victor Mose and David Maitumo

We began regularly counting wildlife in the Amboseli Basin in 2009 in anticipation of the severe drought in the course of the year. The counts of 700 square kilometer Amboseli Basin were designed to catalogue the drought and subsequent recovery in far greater detail than we could glean from the large-scale aerial counts of the 8,500 square kilometer ecosystem censuses once a year. The ground counts of live and dead animals proved timely.
The wildlife and livestock losses to drought in 2009 became so alarming that we convened an emergency meeting in of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, Kenya Wildlife Service and conservation organizations in December 2009. At the meeting we presented the extreme drought losses: over 95 of the wildebeest and two thirds of the zebra and cattle died, died in the preceding few months. The two hundred remaining wildebeest of the 6,000 at the start of the year were in imminent risk of extinction. We also forecast heavy predation on cattle around Amboseli National Park once wildlife left on migrations. Unfortunately, our warnings went unheeded and many lions were killed by herders suffering heavy cattle losses.

The unexpected good news is that wildlife bounced back far faster than the slow recovery we projected due to heavy predation on the small surviving herds, by 2020 wildlife numbers had recovered, and even exceeded those at the start of 2009. The graph below shows the strong recovery of wildebeest and zebra between the 2009 and 2014. Buffalo, which seldom migrated in the rains, suffered far heavier predation than zebra and wildebeest and were slower to bounce back but had also recovered their pre-drought levels by 2017.

Ground counts of the Amboseli Basin and National Park showing the extreme crashes of wildebeest, zebra and buffalo populations in the 2009, and a faster than expected recovery in the following years due to immigration from Tsavo and Tanzania. The regular fluctuations reflect the seasonal migrations from the Amboseli basin to wet season foraging grounds. Note that buffalo seldom migrated in the rains and recovered more slowly than zebra and wildebeest due to heavier predation during the rains.

The faster than expected recovery from the extreme drought of 2009 resulted from a fortuitous influx of wildebeest and zebra from Tsavo National Park and Ngaserai in Tanzania. Had the links to these wildlife areas been cut off, Amboseli’s wildlife would have taken years longer to recover, and wildebeest would likely have gone extinct. The recovery shows just how important is the connection between wildlife areas and parks become more isolated and vulnerable to drought and other hazards. The connections to adjacent wildlife areas have been incorporated into the Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan and Amboseli National Park Plan 2020-2030.

For a fuller description of the drought see David Western. The Worst Drought. Turning Point or Tipping PointSwara 2010: 3 16-20, for an account of the drought.

By Victor N. Mose

ACP, ACC, and NAU launched a NASA-funded One Health survey using GEDI and local monitoring for ecosystem health.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem

By David Western, Immaculate Ombongi and Victor N. Mose

Our study traces the transition from traditional livestock practices based on seasonal migrations to permanent

Posted on December 23, 2020

By David Western, Victor Mose and David Maitumo

We began regularly counting wildlife in the Amboseli Basin in 2009 in anticipation of the severe drought in the course of the year. The counts of 700 square kilometer Amboseli Basin were designed to catalogue the drought and subsequent recovery in far greater detail than we could glean from the large-scale aerial counts of the 8,500 square kilometer ecosystem censuses once a year. The ground counts of live and dead animals proved timely.
The wildlife and livestock losses to drought in 2009 became so alarming that we convened an emergency meeting in of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, Kenya Wildlife Service and conservation organizations in December 2009. At the meeting we presented the extreme drought losses: over 95 of the wildebeest and two thirds of the zebra and cattle died, died in the preceding few months. The two hundred remaining wildebeest of the 6,000 at the start of the year were in imminent risk of extinction. We also forecast heavy predation on cattle around Amboseli National Park once wildlife left on migrations. Unfortunately, our warnings went unheeded and many lions were killed by herders suffering heavy cattle losses.

The unexpected good news is that wildlife bounced back far faster than the slow recovery we projected due to heavy predation on the small surviving herds, by 2020 wildlife numbers had recovered, and even exceeded those at the start of 2009. The graph below shows the strong recovery of wildebeest and zebra between the 2009 and 2014. Buffalo, which seldom migrated in the rains, suffered far heavier predation than zebra and wildebeest and were slower to bounce back but had also recovered their pre-drought levels by 2017.

Ground counts of the Amboseli Basin and National Park showing the extreme crashes of wildebeest, zebra and buffalo populations in the 2009, and a faster than expected recovery in the following years due to immigration from Tsavo and Tanzania. The regular fluctuations reflect the seasonal migrations from the Amboseli basin to wet season foraging grounds. Note that buffalo seldom migrated in the rains and recovered more slowly than zebra and wildebeest due to heavier predation during the rains.

The faster than expected recovery from the extreme drought of 2009 resulted from a fortuitous influx of wildebeest and zebra from Tsavo National Park and Ngaserai in Tanzania. Had the links to these wildlife areas been cut off, Amboseli’s wildlife would have taken years longer to recover, and wildebeest would likely have gone extinct. The recovery shows just how important is the connection between wildlife areas and parks become more isolated and vulnerable to drought and other hazards. The connections to adjacent wildlife areas have been incorporated into the Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan and Amboseli National Park Plan 2020-2030.

For a fuller description of the drought see David Western. The Worst Drought. Turning Point or Tipping PointSwara 2010: 3 16-20, for an account of the drought.

Recent Posts

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

The outlook for livestock and wildlife in the short dry season normally stretching from January to the long rains

By Victor N. Mose

ACP, ACC, and NAU launched a NASA-funded One Health survey using GEDI and local monitoring for ecosystem health.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem

By David Western, Immaculate Ombongi and Victor N. Mose

Our study traces the transition from traditional livestock practices based on seasonal migrations to permanent

By Victor N. Mose, PhD, ACC/ACP, Nairobi, Kenya.

The MOSAIC field mission to the Amazon region, following a previous mission to East Africa

By Victor N. Mose, PhD, ACC/ACP, Nairobi, Kenya.

In a recent community meeting held at the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust offices in southern Kenya.

By Victor N. Mose and David Western

The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) has conducted regular aerial sample counts of Amboseli and eastern Kajiado

By Victor N. Mose, David Western and the ACP Team

The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) continued to monitor the conditions of the rangelands, livestock and wild

By Victor N. Mose

A notable discussion at the forum focused on disparities in data availability between the Global North and South.

By Victor N. Mose, David Western and the ACP Team

The effects of the good short rains have been felt in the Amboseli area.

Contact Us

Amboseli Conservation Program
P.O Box 15289-00509 or 62844-00200
Nairobi, Kenya.

Tel/Fax: +254 20 891360 / 891751
Email: acc@acc.or.ke