By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

Preamble
​The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, with the exception of slightly weaker rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the loss of body condition livestock and wildlife suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their herds, and inflation.

NDVI satellite image for October 2024, showing remaining green patches in Olgulului and Eselenkei and dry conditions across Mbirikani and Kuku-Rombo.

The Outlook
The heavy and prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, except for poorer rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the depleted body conditions of livestock and wildlife
suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their
herds, and inflation.

The post-drought recovery captured in all our key rangelands indicators, coupled with the surplus pastures left by the prolonged rains, spells good outlook for Amboseli through the end of the year. Less clear is the outlook for the short rains at the end of 2024. Originally projected by the Met Department to be poor due to the El Niño cool phase typically following in the La Niña cooling phase, the forecasts are now less clear. Warming
seas and atmospheric temperatures are changing climatic patterns globally, creating greater weather extremes which complicate weather forecasts.

The unpredictable weather patterns make it all the more important to assess the outlook for Amboseli based on actual conditions.

 

Download the full outlook report below.
Amboseli_outlook_report_26th_nov_2024

By David (Jonah) Western

October 16, 2026

Six decades on from studying the ecology of Amboseli, I wrote in We Alone. How Humans Have Conquered the Planet.

By David (Jonah) Western

October 6, 2026

Last week saw the worst fires in years envelop Kilimanjaro.

By David (Jonah) Western

September 25, 2026

The extensive flooding in March of 2026 caused the closure of the Amboseli airstrip.

Amboseli Ecosystem Outlook-Current situation report

Authored by : David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti
Posted on November 30, 2024

Preamble
​The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, with the exception of slightly weaker rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the loss of body condition livestock and wildlife suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their herds, and inflation.

NDVI satellite image for October 2024, showing remaining green patches in Olgulului and Eselenkei and dry conditions across Mbirikani and Kuku-Rombo.

The Outlook
The heavy and prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, except for poorer rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the depleted body conditions of livestock and wildlife
suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their
herds, and inflation.

The post-drought recovery captured in all our key rangelands indicators, coupled with the surplus pastures left by the prolonged rains, spells good outlook for Amboseli through the end of the year. Less clear is the outlook for the short rains at the end of 2024. Originally projected by the Met Department to be poor due to the El Niño cool phase typically following in the La Niña cooling phase, the forecasts are now less clear. Warming
seas and atmospheric temperatures are changing climatic patterns globally, creating greater weather extremes which complicate weather forecasts.

The unpredictable weather patterns make it all the more important to assess the outlook for Amboseli based on actual conditions.

 

Download the full outlook report below.
Amboseli_outlook_report_26th_nov_2024

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

Preamble
​The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, with the exception of slightly weaker rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the loss of body condition livestock and wildlife suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their herds, and inflation.

NDVI satellite image for October 2024, showing remaining green patches in Olgulului and Eselenkei and dry conditions across Mbirikani and Kuku-Rombo.

The Outlook
The heavy and prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, except for poorer rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the depleted body conditions of livestock and wildlife
suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their
herds, and inflation.

The post-drought recovery captured in all our key rangelands indicators, coupled with the surplus pastures left by the prolonged rains, spells good outlook for Amboseli through the end of the year. Less clear is the outlook for the short rains at the end of 2024. Originally projected by the Met Department to be poor due to the El Niño cool phase typically following in the La Niña cooling phase, the forecasts are now less clear. Warming
seas and atmospheric temperatures are changing climatic patterns globally, creating greater weather extremes which complicate weather forecasts.

The unpredictable weather patterns make it all the more important to assess the outlook for Amboseli based on actual conditions.

 

Download the full outlook report below.
Amboseli_outlook_report_26th_nov_2024

By David (Jonah) Western

October 16, 2026

Six decades on from studying the ecology of Amboseli, I wrote in We Alone. How Humans Have Conquered the Planet.

By David (Jonah) Western

October 6, 2026

Last week saw the worst fires in years envelop Kilimanjaro.

By David (Jonah) Western

September 25, 2026

The extensive flooding in March of 2026 caused the closure of the Amboseli airstrip.

Posted on November 30, 2024

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

Preamble
​The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, with the exception of slightly weaker rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the loss of body condition livestock and wildlife suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their herds, and inflation.

NDVI satellite image for October 2024, showing remaining green patches in Olgulului and Eselenkei and dry conditions across Mbirikani and Kuku-Rombo.

The Outlook
The heavy and prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, except for poorer rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the depleted body conditions of livestock and wildlife
suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their
herds, and inflation.

The post-drought recovery captured in all our key rangelands indicators, coupled with the surplus pastures left by the prolonged rains, spells good outlook for Amboseli through the end of the year. Less clear is the outlook for the short rains at the end of 2024. Originally projected by the Met Department to be poor due to the El Niño cool phase typically following in the La Niña cooling phase, the forecasts are now less clear. Warming
seas and atmospheric temperatures are changing climatic patterns globally, creating greater weather extremes which complicate weather forecasts.

The unpredictable weather patterns make it all the more important to assess the outlook for Amboseli based on actual conditions.

 

Download the full outlook report below.
Amboseli_outlook_report_26th_nov_2024

Recent Posts

By David (Jonah) Western

October 28, 2026

Ecotourism Kenya celebrated its 30th anniversary at festive gala held at the Hyatt Regency on 16th of October.

By David (Jonah) Western

October 16, 2026

Six decades on from studying the ecology of Amboseli, I wrote in We Alone. How Humans Have Conquered the Planet.

By David (Jonah) Western

October 6, 2026

Last week saw the worst fires in years envelop Kilimanjaro.

By David (Jonah) Western

September 25, 2026

The extensive flooding in March of 2026 caused the closure of the Amboseli airstrip.

By Victor N. Mose

September 23, 2026

Herders from Amboseli, who are members of a community visited JKUAT.

By Jonah Western

August 17, 2026

The deaths of two more elephants in the Amboseli area last week bring the total to 19, further fueling speculation

By Victor N. Mose

August 10, 2026

Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) statisticians this week took Bayesian inference back 1 million years.

By Dr. David Jonah Western

August 5, 2026

Sixteen elephants have died in Amboseli in just a few weeks, alarming conservationists and the Maasai community

By David Western, Victor N. Mose*, David Maitumo, Winfridah Kemunto, Sakimba Kimiti, Immaculate Ombongi, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

July 31, 2026

The latest Amboseli Ecosystem Outlook Report combines perspectives from local herders and livestock traders

By Victor N. Mose

July 22, 2026

Fireworks displaying EU–Kenya relations rocked the skyline in Loresho at Shamba Café, lighting up the evening sky

Contact Us

Amboseli Conservation Program
P.O Box 15289-00509 or 62844-00200
Nairobi, Kenya.

Tel/Fax: +254 20 891360 / 891751
Email: acc@acc.or.ke