By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

Preamble
​The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, with the exception of slightly weaker rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the loss of body condition livestock and wildlife suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their herds, and inflation.

NDVI satellite image for October 2024, showing remaining green patches in Olgulului and Eselenkei and dry conditions across Mbirikani and Kuku-Rombo.

The Outlook
The heavy and prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, except for poorer rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the depleted body conditions of livestock and wildlife
suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their
herds, and inflation.

The post-drought recovery captured in all our key rangelands indicators, coupled with the surplus pastures left by the prolonged rains, spells good outlook for Amboseli through the end of the year. Less clear is the outlook for the short rains at the end of 2024. Originally projected by the Met Department to be poor due to the El Niño cool phase typically following in the La Niña cooling phase, the forecasts are now less clear. Warming
seas and atmospheric temperatures are changing climatic patterns globally, creating greater weather extremes which complicate weather forecasts.

The unpredictable weather patterns make it all the more important to assess the outlook for Amboseli based on actual conditions.

 

Download the full outlook report below.
Amboseli_outlook_report_26th_nov_2024

By David Western, Victor N. Mose* , David Maitumo, Winfridah Kemunto, Sakimba Kimiti, Immaculate Ombongi, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

May 20, 2026

As a result of the unseasonal rains in January to April, conditions in Amboseli have changed from a severe drought

By Victor N. Mose

May 12, 2026

Staff at the Embassy of Kenya in Vienna were treated to an “elephant show” following Angela Mumbi’s presentation

By Victor N. Mose

April 4, 2026

The MOSAIC meeting in Montpellier focused on practical solutions for shared environmental and health challenges

Amboseli Ecosystem Outlook-Current situation report

Authored by : David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti
Posted on November 30, 2024

Preamble
​The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, with the exception of slightly weaker rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the loss of body condition livestock and wildlife suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their herds, and inflation.

NDVI satellite image for October 2024, showing remaining green patches in Olgulului and Eselenkei and dry conditions across Mbirikani and Kuku-Rombo.

The Outlook
The heavy and prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, except for poorer rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the depleted body conditions of livestock and wildlife
suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their
herds, and inflation.

The post-drought recovery captured in all our key rangelands indicators, coupled with the surplus pastures left by the prolonged rains, spells good outlook for Amboseli through the end of the year. Less clear is the outlook for the short rains at the end of 2024. Originally projected by the Met Department to be poor due to the El Niño cool phase typically following in the La Niña cooling phase, the forecasts are now less clear. Warming
seas and atmospheric temperatures are changing climatic patterns globally, creating greater weather extremes which complicate weather forecasts.

The unpredictable weather patterns make it all the more important to assess the outlook for Amboseli based on actual conditions.

 

Download the full outlook report below.
Amboseli_outlook_report_26th_nov_2024

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

Preamble
​The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, with the exception of slightly weaker rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the loss of body condition livestock and wildlife suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their herds, and inflation.

NDVI satellite image for October 2024, showing remaining green patches in Olgulului and Eselenkei and dry conditions across Mbirikani and Kuku-Rombo.

The Outlook
The heavy and prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, except for poorer rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the depleted body conditions of livestock and wildlife
suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their
herds, and inflation.

The post-drought recovery captured in all our key rangelands indicators, coupled with the surplus pastures left by the prolonged rains, spells good outlook for Amboseli through the end of the year. Less clear is the outlook for the short rains at the end of 2024. Originally projected by the Met Department to be poor due to the El Niño cool phase typically following in the La Niña cooling phase, the forecasts are now less clear. Warming
seas and atmospheric temperatures are changing climatic patterns globally, creating greater weather extremes which complicate weather forecasts.

The unpredictable weather patterns make it all the more important to assess the outlook for Amboseli based on actual conditions.

 

Download the full outlook report below.
Amboseli_outlook_report_26th_nov_2024

By David Western, Victor N. Mose* , David Maitumo, Winfridah Kemunto, Sakimba Kimiti, Immaculate Ombongi, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

May 20, 2026

As a result of the unseasonal rains in January to April, conditions in Amboseli have changed from a severe drought

By Victor N. Mose

May 12, 2026

Staff at the Embassy of Kenya in Vienna were treated to an “elephant show” following Angela Mumbi’s presentation

By Victor N. Mose

April 4, 2026

The MOSAIC meeting in Montpellier focused on practical solutions for shared environmental and health challenges

Posted on November 30, 2024

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

Preamble
​The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, with the exception of slightly weaker rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the loss of body condition livestock and wildlife suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their herds, and inflation.

NDVI satellite image for October 2024, showing remaining green patches in Olgulului and Eselenkei and dry conditions across Mbirikani and Kuku-Rombo.

The Outlook
The heavy and prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, except for poorer rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the depleted body conditions of livestock and wildlife
suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their
herds, and inflation.

The post-drought recovery captured in all our key rangelands indicators, coupled with the surplus pastures left by the prolonged rains, spells good outlook for Amboseli through the end of the year. Less clear is the outlook for the short rains at the end of 2024. Originally projected by the Met Department to be poor due to the El Niño cool phase typically following in the La Niña cooling phase, the forecasts are now less clear. Warming
seas and atmospheric temperatures are changing climatic patterns globally, creating greater weather extremes which complicate weather forecasts.

The unpredictable weather patterns make it all the more important to assess the outlook for Amboseli based on actual conditions.

 

Download the full outlook report below.
Amboseli_outlook_report_26th_nov_2024

Recent Posts

By Victor N. Mose

May 22, 2026

Herders in Amboseli gathered under the shade of an acacia tree for a parliamentary style debate on co-production.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose* , David Maitumo, Winfridah Kemunto, Sakimba Kimiti, Immaculate Ombongi, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

May 20, 2026

As a result of the unseasonal rains in January to April, conditions in Amboseli have changed from a severe drought

By Victor N. Mose

May 12, 2026

Staff at the Embassy of Kenya in Vienna were treated to an “elephant show” following Angela Mumbi’s presentation

By Victor N. Mose

April 4, 2026

The MOSAIC meeting in Montpellier focused on practical solutions for shared environmental and health challenges

By Victor N. Mose

March 18, 2026

Project MOSAIC has launched community-driven One Health Clubs in Amboseli to strengthen local action on resources.

By David Western

February 25, 2026

The greatest wildlife spectacles on earth are the migrations of large mammals and birds.

By David Western

December 5, 2025

Short rains failed in Oct to Nov 2025 and heavy post-drought stocking pushed pastures from green to red.

By David Western

November 27, 2025

The handing back of Amboseli National Park to Kajiado County management on 8th November 2025

By ACP Team

July 26, 2025

Our Amboseli Conservation Program Outlook Report gives the state of pastures, livestock, and wildlife health.

By Victor Mose

June 9, 2025

Horizontal learning, where local communities and scientists co-design research, remains a central pillar of Mosaic

Contact Us

Amboseli Conservation Program
P.O Box 15289-00509 or 62844-00200
Nairobi, Kenya.

Tel/Fax: +254 20 891360 / 891751
Email: acc@acc.or.ke