By Victor N. Mose, David Western and the ACP team

The livestock market in eastern Kajiado has steadily recovered after the near collapse in 2009 owing to the debilitating drought that led to losses of cattle, sheep, goats and donkeys. Prices fell below 1,000 Kenya shillings for a bull too weak to walk and surged to 90,000 Kenya shillings with the drought breaks (Figure 1). Amboseli Conservation Program monitors  livestock  market prices  on a monthly basis and is in the process of modelling economic losses due to droughts and the gains when herders sell off their livestock early enough before  periods of extreme  forage shortfall.

Figure 1: Average livestock market prices in eastern Kajiado showing a steady recovery after the 2009 drought and fluctuations with subsequent dry periods.

A calibration of livestock prices based on monthly  data collected in the ecosystem from 2009 to 2019 shows that  the  average prices for bulls in 2009 were in the red (Figure 2) falling 80.1 percent below the maximum expected market price. The market recovered steadily up to  2014 with arrival of widespread rainfall  and oscillated with seasonality thereafter.
The early warning model can guide herders on when to sell off their livestock  based on forage conditions and market forces, while estimating economic losses  due to extreme drought.

Figure 2: Price gauges showing average bull price index in percentages below the maximum price ever recorded. The prices, in the red during the 2009 drought, fell 80 percent below the maximum before recovering steadily up to 2014.
Figure 3: Annual variations of the livestock prices from 2009 to 2019.

By Victor N. Mose

ACP, ACC, and NAU launched a NASA-funded One Health survey using GEDI and local monitoring for ecosystem health.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem

By David Western, Immaculate Ombongi and Victor N. Mose

Our study traces the transition from traditional livestock practices based on seasonal migrations to permanent

An analysis of livestock price fluctuations with droughts in eastern Kajiado

Authored by : Victor N. Mose, David Western and the ACP team
Posted on January 31, 2020

The livestock market in eastern Kajiado has steadily recovered after the near collapse in 2009 owing to the debilitating drought that led to losses of cattle, sheep, goats and donkeys. Prices fell below 1,000 Kenya shillings for a bull too weak to walk and surged to 90,000 Kenya shillings with the drought breaks (Figure 1). Amboseli Conservation Program monitors  livestock  market prices  on a monthly basis and is in the process of modelling economic losses due to droughts and the gains when herders sell off their livestock early enough before  periods of extreme  forage shortfall.

Figure 1: Average livestock market prices in eastern Kajiado showing a steady recovery after the 2009 drought and fluctuations with subsequent dry periods.

A calibration of livestock prices based on monthly  data collected in the ecosystem from 2009 to 2019 shows that  the  average prices for bulls in 2009 were in the red (Figure 2) falling 80.1 percent below the maximum expected market price. The market recovered steadily up to  2014 with arrival of widespread rainfall  and oscillated with seasonality thereafter.
The early warning model can guide herders on when to sell off their livestock  based on forage conditions and market forces, while estimating economic losses  due to extreme drought.

Figure 2: Price gauges showing average bull price index in percentages below the maximum price ever recorded. The prices, in the red during the 2009 drought, fell 80 percent below the maximum before recovering steadily up to 2014.
Figure 3: Annual variations of the livestock prices from 2009 to 2019.

By Victor N. Mose, David Western and the ACP team

The livestock market in eastern Kajiado has steadily recovered after the near collapse in 2009 owing to the debilitating drought that led to losses of cattle, sheep, goats and donkeys. Prices fell below 1,000 Kenya shillings for a bull too weak to walk and surged to 90,000 Kenya shillings with the drought breaks (Figure 1). Amboseli Conservation Program monitors  livestock  market prices  on a monthly basis and is in the process of modelling economic losses due to droughts and the gains when herders sell off their livestock early enough before  periods of extreme  forage shortfall.

Figure 1: Average livestock market prices in eastern Kajiado showing a steady recovery after the 2009 drought and fluctuations with subsequent dry periods.

A calibration of livestock prices based on monthly  data collected in the ecosystem from 2009 to 2019 shows that  the  average prices for bulls in 2009 were in the red (Figure 2) falling 80.1 percent below the maximum expected market price. The market recovered steadily up to  2014 with arrival of widespread rainfall  and oscillated with seasonality thereafter.
The early warning model can guide herders on when to sell off their livestock  based on forage conditions and market forces, while estimating economic losses  due to extreme drought.

Figure 2: Price gauges showing average bull price index in percentages below the maximum price ever recorded. The prices, in the red during the 2009 drought, fell 80 percent below the maximum before recovering steadily up to 2014.
Figure 3: Annual variations of the livestock prices from 2009 to 2019.

By Victor N. Mose

ACP, ACC, and NAU launched a NASA-funded One Health survey using GEDI and local monitoring for ecosystem health.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem

By David Western, Immaculate Ombongi and Victor N. Mose

Our study traces the transition from traditional livestock practices based on seasonal migrations to permanent

Posted on January 31, 2020

By Victor N. Mose, David Western and the ACP team

The livestock market in eastern Kajiado has steadily recovered after the near collapse in 2009 owing to the debilitating drought that led to losses of cattle, sheep, goats and donkeys. Prices fell below 1,000 Kenya shillings for a bull too weak to walk and surged to 90,000 Kenya shillings with the drought breaks (Figure 1). Amboseli Conservation Program monitors  livestock  market prices  on a monthly basis and is in the process of modelling economic losses due to droughts and the gains when herders sell off their livestock early enough before  periods of extreme  forage shortfall.

Figure 1: Average livestock market prices in eastern Kajiado showing a steady recovery after the 2009 drought and fluctuations with subsequent dry periods.

A calibration of livestock prices based on monthly  data collected in the ecosystem from 2009 to 2019 shows that  the  average prices for bulls in 2009 were in the red (Figure 2) falling 80.1 percent below the maximum expected market price. The market recovered steadily up to  2014 with arrival of widespread rainfall  and oscillated with seasonality thereafter.
The early warning model can guide herders on when to sell off their livestock  based on forage conditions and market forces, while estimating economic losses  due to extreme drought.

Figure 2: Price gauges showing average bull price index in percentages below the maximum price ever recorded. The prices, in the red during the 2009 drought, fell 80 percent below the maximum before recovering steadily up to 2014.
Figure 3: Annual variations of the livestock prices from 2009 to 2019.

Recent Posts

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

The outlook for livestock and wildlife in the short dry season normally stretching from January to the long rains

By Victor N. Mose

ACP, ACC, and NAU launched a NASA-funded One Health survey using GEDI and local monitoring for ecosystem health.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem

By David Western, Immaculate Ombongi and Victor N. Mose

Our study traces the transition from traditional livestock practices based on seasonal migrations to permanent

By Victor N. Mose, PhD, ACC/ACP, Nairobi, Kenya.

The MOSAIC field mission to the Amazon region, following a previous mission to East Africa

By Victor N. Mose, PhD, ACC/ACP, Nairobi, Kenya.

In a recent community meeting held at the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust offices in southern Kenya.

By Victor N. Mose and David Western

The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) has conducted regular aerial sample counts of Amboseli and eastern Kajiado

By Victor N. Mose, David Western and the ACP Team

The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) continued to monitor the conditions of the rangelands, livestock and wild

By Victor N. Mose

A notable discussion at the forum focused on disparities in data availability between the Global North and South.

By Victor N. Mose, David Western and the ACP Team

The effects of the good short rains have been felt in the Amboseli area.

Contact Us

Amboseli Conservation Program
P.O Box 15289-00509 or 62844-00200
Nairobi, Kenya.

Tel/Fax: +254 20 891360 / 891751
Email: acc@acc.or.ke