By David Western, David Maitumo and Victor Mose

2017 saw a continuing recovery of Amboseli wildlife numbers after the precipitous losses in 2008, as shown in Figure 1.  The slow recovery of zebra and wildebeest, held in check by predation until 2012, began to accelerate through to 2017 once the herds resumed their strong seasonal migrations. Zebra and wildebeest numbers tracked each other closely throughout the recovery. The downturn in the 2017 dry season may reflect fewer animals returning to the basin rather than a decline in population. Buffalo numbers remained low until 2015 when the herds began migrating with the rains to avoid heavy predation pressure and now stand at three quarters of their pre-drought levels.

Figure 1. Population estimates for zebra, wildebeest and buffalo sampled in the Amboseli basin from 2009 to December 2017.

Elephant numbers which peaked at around 550 in the Amboseli Basin in the late 1980s following a concentration in the park following the heavy poaching of the 1970s, declined steadily to a low of 300 at the beginning of the 2009 drought. After the loss of over 400 animals, the elephant numbers returned to a high of over 550, then fell strongly to an all-time low of a little over 200 with the resumption of drought in 2017 when little forage remained in the swamps.

Sheep and goat numbers climbed to 179,000 by November 2017 when ACP commissioned a count of the Amboseli ecosystem, considerably down from a peak of 341,000 in 2016.  Cattle numbers are also down after peaking in 2016, from 127,000 to 55,000. ACP uses many indicators to track and anticipate severe conditions. In addition to the numbers of wildlife and livestock, other measures include pasture abundance, the body condition and milk yields of cattle (Figure 2) and market prices (Figure 3) which slump in times of drought.

Taken collectively the data show the build-up of wildlife numbers and recovery of livestock condition after the 2009 drought and point to a repeat severe drought setting in late 2016 and early 2017. The declining conditions are reflected in livestock milk yields, body condition and market prices. Result are not yet in from mortality figures but for cattle are likely to be around 40 percent so far.

The 2017 short rains were forecast to be good and widespread but have been desultory and scattered over much of southern Kenya, including Amboseli. Large numbers of zebra and wildebeest carcasses have been counted around the Amboseli swamps. With the paltry rains and failure of grass to recover after years of heavy grazing, the drought conditions are likely to become extremely severe before the long rains of April 2018.

Figure 2. Livestock body condition scores and milk yield in the Amboseli ecosystem.
Figure 3. Fluctuations in livestock prices in Amboseli ecosystem from 2009 to 2017

By Victor N. Mose

ACP, ACC, and NAU launched a NASA-funded One Health survey using GEDI and local monitoring for ecosystem health.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem

By David Western, Immaculate Ombongi and Victor N. Mose

Our study traces the transition from traditional livestock practices based on seasonal migrations to permanent

Recovery from 2009 drought but another to come

Authored by : David Western, David Maitumo and Victor Mose
Posted on December 20, 2017

2017 saw a continuing recovery of Amboseli wildlife numbers after the precipitous losses in 2008, as shown in Figure 1.  The slow recovery of zebra and wildebeest, held in check by predation until 2012, began to accelerate through to 2017 once the herds resumed their strong seasonal migrations. Zebra and wildebeest numbers tracked each other closely throughout the recovery. The downturn in the 2017 dry season may reflect fewer animals returning to the basin rather than a decline in population. Buffalo numbers remained low until 2015 when the herds began migrating with the rains to avoid heavy predation pressure and now stand at three quarters of their pre-drought levels.

Figure 1. Population estimates for zebra, wildebeest and buffalo sampled in the Amboseli basin from 2009 to December 2017.

Elephant numbers which peaked at around 550 in the Amboseli Basin in the late 1980s following a concentration in the park following the heavy poaching of the 1970s, declined steadily to a low of 300 at the beginning of the 2009 drought. After the loss of over 400 animals, the elephant numbers returned to a high of over 550, then fell strongly to an all-time low of a little over 200 with the resumption of drought in 2017 when little forage remained in the swamps.

Sheep and goat numbers climbed to 179,000 by November 2017 when ACP commissioned a count of the Amboseli ecosystem, considerably down from a peak of 341,000 in 2016.  Cattle numbers are also down after peaking in 2016, from 127,000 to 55,000. ACP uses many indicators to track and anticipate severe conditions. In addition to the numbers of wildlife and livestock, other measures include pasture abundance, the body condition and milk yields of cattle (Figure 2) and market prices (Figure 3) which slump in times of drought.

Taken collectively the data show the build-up of wildlife numbers and recovery of livestock condition after the 2009 drought and point to a repeat severe drought setting in late 2016 and early 2017. The declining conditions are reflected in livestock milk yields, body condition and market prices. Result are not yet in from mortality figures but for cattle are likely to be around 40 percent so far.

The 2017 short rains were forecast to be good and widespread but have been desultory and scattered over much of southern Kenya, including Amboseli. Large numbers of zebra and wildebeest carcasses have been counted around the Amboseli swamps. With the paltry rains and failure of grass to recover after years of heavy grazing, the drought conditions are likely to become extremely severe before the long rains of April 2018.

Figure 2. Livestock body condition scores and milk yield in the Amboseli ecosystem.
Figure 3. Fluctuations in livestock prices in Amboseli ecosystem from 2009 to 2017

By David Western, David Maitumo and Victor Mose

2017 saw a continuing recovery of Amboseli wildlife numbers after the precipitous losses in 2008, as shown in Figure 1.  The slow recovery of zebra and wildebeest, held in check by predation until 2012, began to accelerate through to 2017 once the herds resumed their strong seasonal migrations. Zebra and wildebeest numbers tracked each other closely throughout the recovery. The downturn in the 2017 dry season may reflect fewer animals returning to the basin rather than a decline in population. Buffalo numbers remained low until 2015 when the herds began migrating with the rains to avoid heavy predation pressure and now stand at three quarters of their pre-drought levels.

Figure 1. Population estimates for zebra, wildebeest and buffalo sampled in the Amboseli basin from 2009 to December 2017.

Elephant numbers which peaked at around 550 in the Amboseli Basin in the late 1980s following a concentration in the park following the heavy poaching of the 1970s, declined steadily to a low of 300 at the beginning of the 2009 drought. After the loss of over 400 animals, the elephant numbers returned to a high of over 550, then fell strongly to an all-time low of a little over 200 with the resumption of drought in 2017 when little forage remained in the swamps.

Sheep and goat numbers climbed to 179,000 by November 2017 when ACP commissioned a count of the Amboseli ecosystem, considerably down from a peak of 341,000 in 2016.  Cattle numbers are also down after peaking in 2016, from 127,000 to 55,000. ACP uses many indicators to track and anticipate severe conditions. In addition to the numbers of wildlife and livestock, other measures include pasture abundance, the body condition and milk yields of cattle (Figure 2) and market prices (Figure 3) which slump in times of drought.

Taken collectively the data show the build-up of wildlife numbers and recovery of livestock condition after the 2009 drought and point to a repeat severe drought setting in late 2016 and early 2017. The declining conditions are reflected in livestock milk yields, body condition and market prices. Result are not yet in from mortality figures but for cattle are likely to be around 40 percent so far.

The 2017 short rains were forecast to be good and widespread but have been desultory and scattered over much of southern Kenya, including Amboseli. Large numbers of zebra and wildebeest carcasses have been counted around the Amboseli swamps. With the paltry rains and failure of grass to recover after years of heavy grazing, the drought conditions are likely to become extremely severe before the long rains of April 2018.

Figure 2. Livestock body condition scores and milk yield in the Amboseli ecosystem.
Figure 3. Fluctuations in livestock prices in Amboseli ecosystem from 2009 to 2017

By Victor N. Mose

ACP, ACC, and NAU launched a NASA-funded One Health survey using GEDI and local monitoring for ecosystem health.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem

By David Western, Immaculate Ombongi and Victor N. Mose

Our study traces the transition from traditional livestock practices based on seasonal migrations to permanent

Posted on December 20, 2017

By David Western, David Maitumo and Victor Mose

2017 saw a continuing recovery of Amboseli wildlife numbers after the precipitous losses in 2008, as shown in Figure 1.  The slow recovery of zebra and wildebeest, held in check by predation until 2012, began to accelerate through to 2017 once the herds resumed their strong seasonal migrations. Zebra and wildebeest numbers tracked each other closely throughout the recovery. The downturn in the 2017 dry season may reflect fewer animals returning to the basin rather than a decline in population. Buffalo numbers remained low until 2015 when the herds began migrating with the rains to avoid heavy predation pressure and now stand at three quarters of their pre-drought levels.

Figure 1. Population estimates for zebra, wildebeest and buffalo sampled in the Amboseli basin from 2009 to December 2017.

Elephant numbers which peaked at around 550 in the Amboseli Basin in the late 1980s following a concentration in the park following the heavy poaching of the 1970s, declined steadily to a low of 300 at the beginning of the 2009 drought. After the loss of over 400 animals, the elephant numbers returned to a high of over 550, then fell strongly to an all-time low of a little over 200 with the resumption of drought in 2017 when little forage remained in the swamps.

Sheep and goat numbers climbed to 179,000 by November 2017 when ACP commissioned a count of the Amboseli ecosystem, considerably down from a peak of 341,000 in 2016.  Cattle numbers are also down after peaking in 2016, from 127,000 to 55,000. ACP uses many indicators to track and anticipate severe conditions. In addition to the numbers of wildlife and livestock, other measures include pasture abundance, the body condition and milk yields of cattle (Figure 2) and market prices (Figure 3) which slump in times of drought.

Taken collectively the data show the build-up of wildlife numbers and recovery of livestock condition after the 2009 drought and point to a repeat severe drought setting in late 2016 and early 2017. The declining conditions are reflected in livestock milk yields, body condition and market prices. Result are not yet in from mortality figures but for cattle are likely to be around 40 percent so far.

The 2017 short rains were forecast to be good and widespread but have been desultory and scattered over much of southern Kenya, including Amboseli. Large numbers of zebra and wildebeest carcasses have been counted around the Amboseli swamps. With the paltry rains and failure of grass to recover after years of heavy grazing, the drought conditions are likely to become extremely severe before the long rains of April 2018.

Figure 2. Livestock body condition scores and milk yield in the Amboseli ecosystem.
Figure 3. Fluctuations in livestock prices in Amboseli ecosystem from 2009 to 2017

Recent Posts

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

The outlook for livestock and wildlife in the short dry season normally stretching from January to the long rains

By Victor N. Mose

ACP, ACC, and NAU launched a NASA-funded One Health survey using GEDI and local monitoring for ecosystem health.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem

By David Western, Immaculate Ombongi and Victor N. Mose

Our study traces the transition from traditional livestock practices based on seasonal migrations to permanent

By Victor N. Mose, PhD, ACC/ACP, Nairobi, Kenya.

The MOSAIC field mission to the Amazon region, following a previous mission to East Africa

By Victor N. Mose, PhD, ACC/ACP, Nairobi, Kenya.

In a recent community meeting held at the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust offices in southern Kenya.

By Victor N. Mose and David Western

The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) has conducted regular aerial sample counts of Amboseli and eastern Kajiado

By Victor N. Mose, David Western and the ACP Team

The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) continued to monitor the conditions of the rangelands, livestock and wild

By Victor N. Mose

A notable discussion at the forum focused on disparities in data availability between the Global North and South.

By Victor N. Mose, David Western and the ACP Team

The effects of the good short rains have been felt in the Amboseli area.

Contact Us

Amboseli Conservation Program
P.O Box 15289-00509 or 62844-00200
Nairobi, Kenya.

Tel/Fax: +254 20 891360 / 891751
Email: acc@acc.or.ke